Impact of COVID-19 & Response Measures on HIV-HCV Prevention Services and Social Determinants in People Who Inject Drugs in 13 Sites with Recent HIV Outbreaks in Europe, North America and Israel.

HIV/HCV prevention among people who inject drugs (PWID) is of key public health importance. We aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 and associated response measures on HIV/HCV prevention services and socio-economic status of PWID in high-HIV-risk sites. Sites with recent (2011-2019) HIV outbreaks among PWID in Europe North America and Israel, that had been previously identified, were contacted early May 2020. Out of 17 sites invited to participate, 13 accepted. Semi-structured qualitative site reports were prepared covering data from March to May 2020, analyzed/coded and confirmed with a structured questionnaire, in which all sites explicitly responded to all 103 issues reported in the qualitative reports. Opioid maintenance treatment, needle/syringe programs and antiretroviral treatment /hepatitis C treatment continued, but with important reductions and operational changes. Increases in overdoses, widespread difficulties with food and hygiene needs, disruptions in drug supply, and increased homelessness were reported. Service programs rapidly reformed long established, and politically entrenched, restrictive service delivery policies. Future epidemic control measures should include mitigation of negative side-effects on service provision and socio-economic determinants in PWID.

RESUMEN: La prevención del VIH/VHC entre las personas que se inyectan drogas (PWID) es de vital importancia para la salud pública. Nuestro objetivo fue evaluar el impacto de COVID-19 y las medidas de respuesta asociadas en los servicios de prevención del VIH/VHC y el estado socioeconómico de las PWID en sitios de alto riesgo de VIH. Se contactó con sitios con brotes recientes (2011­2019) de VIH entre PWID en Europa, América del Norte e Israel, que habían sido previamente identificados, a principios de mayo de 2020. De los 17 sitios invitados a participar, 13 aceptaron. Se prepararon informes cualitativos semiestructurados del sitio que cubrían los datos de marzo a mayo de 2020, analizados/codificados y confirmados con un cuestionario estructurado, en el que todos los sitios respondieron explícitamente a los 103 asuntos reportados en los informes cualitativos. El tratamiento de mantenimiento con opiáceos, los programas de agujas/jeringas y el tratamiento antirretroviral/tratamiento de la hepatitis C continuaron, pero con importantes reducciones y cambios operativos. Se reportaron aumentos en las sobredosis, dificultades generalizadas con las necesidades alimentarias y de higiene, interrupciones en el suministro de medicamentos y aumento de personas sin hogar. Los programas de servicios reformaron rápidamente las políticas restrictivas de prestación de servicios, establecidas desde hace mucho tiempo y políticamente arraigadas. Las futuras medidas de control de epidemias deben incluir la mitigación de los efectos secundarios negativos en la prestación de servicios y los determinantes socioeconómicos en las PWID.

Estimation of the basic and the effective reproduction numbers for the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) in Greece

OBJECTIVE To estimate the R0 and Rt of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic in Greece and to compare these estimates with those reported in the literature for the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic in other countries, and with those of past influenza pandemics, seasonal influenza and the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD We used data on the number of laboratory-confirmed influenza A (H1N1) 2009 cases per week for the period from mid-September 2009 to February 2010 in Greece that were collected by the Hellenic Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention. The daily number of cases was obtained, using linear and cubic spline interpolation to estimate the Rt. R0 was estimated apply-ing the maximum likelihood method on the daily number of cases obtained from cubic spline interpolation. Finally, sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the R0 estimate. RESULTS By the end of October 2009, the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 increased exponentially, reaching a peak at the end of November. The estimated basic reproduction number R0 was 1.35 (95% confidence interval: 1.16-1.57). Rt was close to 1 in mid-October 2009;it increased subsequently and reached close to 1.4 in early November, then in December 2009 it declined below 1 and remained at low levels until the end of February 2010. CONCLUSIONS The estimation of the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Greece is in line with estimates provided by other countries, and places R0 at lower levels compared to R0 estimates for both previous influenza pandemics and the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the estimated 2009 R0 is similar to the higher estimates for R0 of seasonal influenza. Copyright © Athens Medical Society.

Relating SARS-CoV-2 shedding rate in wastewater to daily positive tests data: A consistent model based approach.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been engaged to complement medical surveillance and in some cases to also act as an early diagnosis indicator of viral spreading in the community. Most efforts worldwide by the scientific community and commercial companies focus on the formulation of protocols for SARS-CoV-2 analysis in wastewater and approaches addressing the quantitative relationship between WBE and medical surveillance are lacking. In the present study, a mathematical model is developed which uses as input the number of daily positive medical tests together with the highly non-linear shedding rate curve of individuals to estimate the evolution of global virus shedding rate in wastewater along calendar days. A comprehensive parametric study by the model using as input actual medical surveillance and WBE data for the city of Thessaloniki (~700,000 inhabitants, North Greece) during the outbreak of November 2020 reveals the conditions under which WBE can be used as an early warning tool for predicting pandemic outbreaks. It is shown that early warning capacity is different along the days of an outbreak and depends strongly on the number of days apart between the day of maximum shedding rate of infected individuals in their disease cycle and the day of their medical testing. The present data indicate for Thessaloniki an average early warning capacity of around 2 days. Moreover, the data imply that there exists a proportion between unreported cases (asymptomatic persons with mild symptoms that do not seek medical advice) and reported cases. The proportion increases with the number of reported cases. The early detection capacity of WBE improves substantially in the presence of an increasing number of unreported cases. For Thessaloniki at the peak of the pandemic in mid-November 2020, the number of unreported cases reached a maximum around 4 times the number of reported cases.